Today’s benefits strategy requires planning across a wider range of possible outcomes:

• Mortality trends are mixed. Signals, including cancer, drug overdose, obesity, GLP-1’s, public health and workforce aging are all moving at different speeds.
• Supplemental health demand may rise as employees face higher deductibles and greater out-of-pocket exposure.
• Confidence does not come from certainty. It comes from disciplined data interpretation, collaboration and scenario-based planning.

Mortality trends are sending mixed signals

The mortality outlook is not moving in one direction. Some trends point to cautious optimism, while others suggest continued pressure on pricing, claims expectations and workforce planning.

Signals that may support improvement

• Cancer detection and treatment: Cancer remains one of the leading causes of death, but progress in early detection and treatment continues to change the outlook. The American Cancer Society’s 2026 report highlights current incidence, mortality and survival trends, including the continued role of prevention, early detection and treatment in cancer outcomes.¹
• Overdose deaths: Overdose deaths continue to move in the right direction in 2025. Provisional data from CDC's National Center for Health Statistics indicate there were an estimated 69,973 drug overdose deaths in the United States during 2025, a decrease of almost 14 percent from the 81,313 deaths estimated in 2024.² That is meaningful progress, but it is not yet a permanent trend. Volatility remains, particularly when public health infrastructure, substance use patterns and access to interventions can shift quickly.

Signals that may increase pressure

• Obesity prevalence: Adult obesity remains highly prevalent. CDC data for August 2021 through August 2023 showed adult obesity at 40.3 percent and severe obesity at 9.4 percent, with age-adjusted severe obesity increasing over the previous decade.³ Weight can have a measurable impact on both mortality and morbidity, with obesity correlated to higher rates of several critical and chronic illnesses.
• Workforce aging: Workforce demographics add another layer of complexity. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections show people ages 65 and older are expected to experience the fastest increase in their share of the labor force by 2033, while the youngest worker group is projected to decline as a share of the labor force.⁷ For employers, that changes workforce health profiles, caregiving realities, coverage needs and plan economics.

The GLP-1 variable

GLP-1 medications could become one of the most important counterweights to obesity-driven risk. But the actuarial consideration is broader than whether these drugs work. Access, affordability and medication persistence will influence whether they create durable population-level improvement.

A JAMA Network Open cohort study of more than 125,000 adults found that many patients discontinued GLP-1 therapy within one year, with discontinuation higher among patients without type 2 diabetes.⁴ Cost pressure is also becoming a near-term employer concern. Mercer reports that 77 percent of large employers say managing GLP-1 costs is extremely or very important, and fewer than half cover drugs specifically approved to treat obesity.⁵ KFF’s employer research also found that use has been higher than expected for many large employers, with some adding or strengthening case management, lifestyle program requirements or utilization controls.⁶

For brokers and employers, GLP-1s show how one trend can create both optimism and pressure. The opportunity is long-term health improvement. The challenge is building a plan approach that is clinically appropriate, financially sustainable and transparent to employees.

Supplemental health trends are more nuanced than they appear

The same trend can affect claims experience and employee demand in different ways.

Cancer detection is a clear example. Earlier detection may improve outcomes over time, but it may also accelerate the timing of critical illness claims. It can also make the need for coverage more tangible to employees who may have previously viewed serious diagnoses as remote or abstract.

Rising health care costs are one of the clearest trends in an otherwise uncertain environment. While medical innovation continues to improve outcomes, employees are often responsible for a growing share of costs through deductibles and out-of-pocket expenses. KFF's latest employer health benefits research found average deductibles nearing $1,900 for covered workers with single coverage, while annual out-of-pocket maximums can reach $8,500 for individuals and $17,000 for families.⁸ Employers are feeling similar pressure, with projected health care cost increases of 10% in 2026 driven by catastrophic claims, specialty drugs and higher utilization.⁹

Infertility and reproductive health also deserve attention. WHO estimates that around 17.5 percent of the adult population, roughly 1 in 6 people globally, experience infertility.¹⁰ As employers respond to broader family-building needs, demand for more inclusive benefit design may rise. That demand is real, but it also requires careful pricing, product design and communication.

In this environment, supplemental health products can move from “nice to have” to practical financial protection. Accident, critical illness and hospital indemnity coverage helps employees manage the gap between what their medical plan covers and what they owe when an event occurs.

What mixed health trends mean for pricing, plan design and broker strategy

For brokers and employers, the answer is not to chase each new trend as if it were destiny but to evaluate how these trends interact.

Aging workforce demographics may increase certain risks, while cancer treatment advances may improve others. GLP-1s may reduce obesity-related morbidity over time, but only if persistence and access hold. Higher health care costs (deductibles and out-of-pocket expenses) may increase supplemental health demand, while rising premiums create increasing sensitivity to payroll deductions. Public health trust remains a concern too. KFF found trust in the CDC, FDA, state and local public health officials, and even personal physicians declined between June 2023 and January 2025.¹¹

Collaboration matters when pricing confidence is harder to find

Confidence can improve when diverse perspectives challenge assumptions. Medical experts, claims teams, actuaries, underwriters, reinsurers, brokers, employers and benefit administration partners all see different parts of the same risk picture.

That kind of collaboration doesn’t eliminate uncertainty. It helps teams ask better questions.

• Where are assumptions too narrow?
• Which trends have enough evidence to influence pricing?
• Which one should be monitored but not over-weighted?
• Where might product demand rise even if claims impact is less clear?
• Where does an employer’s actual population differ from national averages?

This is where disciplined risk-taking becomes a strength. The insurance industry is built on risk, but not unmanaged risk. The goal isn’t perfect certainty, it’s informed confidence.

What emerging mortality and morbidity trends mean for benefits strategy

Emerging mortality and morbidity trends are making life and supplemental health benefits more complex to price, design and communicate. Medical advances, GLP-1 utilization, overdose trends, public health trust, workforce aging, health care costs and infertility needs may all affect claims experience and product demand differently. A strong strategy comes from understanding the range of possible outcomes and applying data, expert collaboration and scenario planning to make decisions that can hold up as conditions change.

Securian Financial works with brokers and employers to navigate complexity across life and supplemental health benefits, using data, collaboration and product insight to support decisions that can adapt as trends evolve.

Connect with Securian Financial to discuss how life and supplemental health solutions can help support employees, manage complexity and prepare for a wider range of outcomes.